Our Picks to Win the 2023 Oscars: From the No-Brainers to the Dark Horse Contenders

The Nominees:

• All Quiet on the Western Front - Malte Grunert, producer
• Avatar: The Way of Water - James Cameron and Jon Landau, producers
• The Banshees of Inisherin - Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, and Martin McDonagh, producers
• Elvis - Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss, producers
• Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang, producers
• The Fabelmans - Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, producers
• Tár - Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, and Scott Lambert, producers
• Top Gun: Maverick - Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
• Triangle of Sadness - Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, producers
• Women Talking - Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand, producers

Bet on: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Given its awards-season successes thus far, robust box office gross ($73 million domestically), and what seems like a nearly universally moved audience, this is the one to beat.

Would love to see it: Tár - Immaculately crafted, endlessly debatable, and curious about cancel culture without being didactic, this is, in my opinion, the finest of the nominees of this year (and any year for that matter).

Dark horse: The Fabelmans - Never underestimate the draw of Spielberg or movies about making movies.

The Nominees:

• All That Breathes - Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann, and Teddy Leifer
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, and Yoni Golijov
• Fire of Love - Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, and Ina Fichman
• A House Made of Splinters - Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
• Navalny - Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, and Shane Boris

Bet on: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - A portrait of Nan Goldin and her protest against the oxycontin-producing Sackler family, this one takes on a lot and executes it all flawlessly.

Would love to see it: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - It’s a deserving frontrunner!

Dark horse: Navalny - A film about Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and his poisoning, Navalny has the kind of relevance that scans as urgency that may result in Oscar gold.

The Nominees:

• Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau, The Whale
• Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Bet on: Angela Bassett - She’s been better in better movies, but the overall feeling is largely that it’s Bassett’s turn, and given the depth of the filmography she’s racked up in the decades leading up to this potential win, she’s earned it. Think of it as one of those wins à la Whoopi Goldberg in Ghost or Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant—a kind of career achievement honor with a particular contemporary peg. Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Bassett did the thing.

Would love to see it: Jamie Lee Curtis - Only because I want to see her bleeped when she inevitably contrasts her current career high with the attention-grabbing ad gig she had just a few years ago. I would put good money on her reminding us, “I sold yogurt that makes you shit!” during her speech, should she be honored with an Oscar.

Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis - For similar lifetime-achievement reasons that Bassett is considered a shoe-in, Curtis could take this category, as well.

The Nominees:

• Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
  
• Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
• Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Bet on: Ke Huy Quan - All things considered, it’s a pretty light category, so Quan’s solid performance and poignant comeback story (the veteran actor appeared in ‘80s hits Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Goonies as a kid and has since struggled with his career—so much so that he lost his health insurance after Everything wrapped) may just do the trick.

Would love to see it: Brian Tyree Henry - He was great in an under-seen movie and would almost certainly turn out an acceptance speech to match his performance’s intensity.

Dark horse: Judd Hirsch - He may get the career-achievement veteran treatment. But also, if The Banshees of Inisherin ends up being honored at all, it could very well be in this category.

The Nominees:

• Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
• Todd Field, Tár
• Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Bet on: The Daniels - The tone-shifting, narrative-braiding, absolute vision of Everything Everywhere All at Once should be embedded next to the definition of “directing” on dictionary.com. Also, it’s not always that the Best Picture and Directing categories match, but it happens often enough that when something is considered a lock for Picture, so goes the directing category. This would be big: the first time directors of a (previous) movie prominently featuring a farting corpse win the gold.

Would love to see it: Todd Field - I mean, for that 20-minute, unbroken shot (featuring a 180 pan of the camera!) of the lecture in Juilliard alone, this man deserves gold. And, oh yeah, for all the rest of the movie, too.

Dark horse: Ruben Östlund - There’s often one win out of left field in one of the five major categories, and given Triangle of Sadness’s crowd-pleasing profile and arty DNA, Östlund might be it.

The Nominees:

• All Quiet on the Western Front - screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - written by Rian Johnson
• Living - written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• Top Gun: Maverick - screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• Women Talking - screenplay by Sarah Polley

Bet on: Sarah Polley - Here’s where the Academy atones for its failure to nominate a woman in the Directing category with a consolation prize.

Would love to see it: Kazuo Ishiguro - Give him the gift that every Nobel Prize winner needs to go with his medal: an Oscar!

Dark horse: The writers of Top Gun: Maverick - This movie sure did have its fans! This category is about as high as this movie can go, despite all of those state-of-the-art flying machines that its characters zoom around in.

The Nominees:

• The Banshees of Inisherin, written by Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once, written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans, written by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
• Tár, Written by Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness, written by Ruben Östlund

Bet on: Ruben Östlund - Though this could just as easily go to the likely sweeper of the night, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Original Screenplay seems like the perfect category to honor a less popular movie with an extremely hip cache—the kind of thing that’s almost (but not quite) too cool for the Academy, which can work as catnip for voters.

Would love to see it: Todd Field - It kills me that Tár might go home empty-handed. She’s so accomplished! Could this be the bone the Academy throws?

Dark horse: Martin McDonagh - Or could the bone be thrown to some Banshees?

The Nominees:

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
• Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
• Close (Belgium)
• EO (Poland)
• The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Bet on: All Quiet on the Western Front - The only film in the International category to also score a Best Picture nod, this one seems like a no-brainer.

Would love to see it: Close - This movie really moves people, and its queer-adjacent subject matter might attract the more compassionate Academy voters.

Dark horse: EO - It’s actually a dark donkey but close enough. Again, this is one of those movies that elicits very strong feelings, and it would not be at all surprising to see it go all the way, challenging (but brilliant!) narrative structure be damned.

The Nominees:

• “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman - music and lyric by Diane Warren
• “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick - music and lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson; lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• “Naatu Naatu” from RRR - music by M.M. Keeravaani; lyric by Chandrabose
• “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once - music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Bet on: “Naatu Naatu” - The centerpiece number in S. S. Rajamouli’s spectacularly eclectic RRR, a win for this showstopper would allow the Academy to show how down with Bollywood it thinks it is.

Would love to see it: “Applause” - Legend Diane Warren, who has done as much as anyone to keep open the Great American Songbook, has never won in this category (though she does have an honorary Oscar). I think there’s a good chance she might also say, “I sold yogurt that makes you shit!” or at least something along those wacky lines if she gets it. A win for her would be a win for all of us, promise.

Dark horse: “Hold My Hand” - I’d also love to see the gayest thing about Top Gun: Maverick—Gaga—get a trophy since that movie is so consciously de-gayed.

The Nominees:

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio - Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, and Alex Bulkley
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On - Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
• The Sea Beast - Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
• Turning Red - Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Bet on: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On - A24 could very easily stretch its domination into the animation category with this little charmer.

Would love to see it: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - The cat is cute, and sometimes that’s enough.

Dark horse: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio - This won the Golden Globe and might actually be the frontrunner, but yikes, have you watched it? Anyway, the Academy loves del Toro, so maybe this isn’t as dark horse as I think it is.

The Nominees:

• Austin Butler, Elvis
• Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser, The Whale
• Paul Mescal, Aftersun
• Bill Nighy, Living

Bet on: Brendan Fraser - Though Butler has gained considerable traction in the lead-up to the Oscars, Fraser has always been the one to beat. This narrative was crafted after The Whale’s premiere at Venice, and I believe the story will be stuck to. I don’t like it, but I accept it.

Would love to see it: Colin Farrell - He’s perennially underrated and hot, and out of everybody, I’d expect him to deliver the most charming speech.

Dark horse: Paul Mescal - The actor is this close to becoming an absolute superstar, and a win like this is all he needs to push him over the edge. Given his trajectory, such a milestone seems like only a matter of time—so why not now?

The Nominees:

• Cate Blanchett, Tár
• Ana de Armas, Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
• Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Bet on: Michelle Yeoh - Given all the Everything momentum, most experts agree that Yeoh has this in the bag. The first Asian nominee in this category would then (obviously) go on to become the first Asian winner in this category, and we love a historical moment. Yeoh is a legend, and a win here would double as a lifetime achievement honor.

Would love to see it: Cate Blanchett - Look, she wipes the floor with everyone, including Yeoh. Sorry! Blanchett’s embodiment of Lydia Tár, in a simultaneous exuding of confidence alongside her character, is what great performances are all about. Yeah, Yeoh’s the emotional center that holds together the unwieldy narrative of Everything Everywhere All at Once, but given how much is going on in that movie, swapping her out with another actor might result in very much the same movie. Tár, on the other hand, would not be the same movie, the same frequency, of even the same medium, without Blanchett. That said, Blanchett has two Oscars as it is (and, almost certainly, will get more), and so spreading the love and giving Yeoh a trophy will be just fine. Sigh.

Dark horse: Andrea Riseborough - LOL.